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Sunday, September 07, 2003

BUSTAMANTE DIVERTS DOUGH TO FIGHTING PROP 54

Proving once again that in politics the right things usually happen for the wrong reasons, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante is diverting the money from Indian tribe endorsements to fighting Prop 54. The Sacramento Bee broke the story this morning here. Schwarzenegger decided to oppose Prop 54 as well, almost certainly as a balance to his recently announced stance against driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants.

Connery is all but throwing in the towel. In a LA Times piece this morning he conceded Prop 54 is probably doomed.

Last week, Schwarzenegger announced he would oppose a bill currently heading to Governor Davis' desk sponsored by Los Angeles State Senator Gilbert Cedillo that would allow undocumented immigrants to be able to acquire drivers licenses. Given the heat he's received for his support of Prop 187, he's apparently counted out the Latino vote. His opposition to Prop 54 is probably calculated to stem any further bleeding from the African American and Asian American constituencies, although it is notable that he has not agreed to appear at a statewide debate for California's ethnic media outlets in Los Angeles next week, and likely won't show up.

The best thing about this recall race is that the ideological spectrum is being well represented. Moderates look like blow-in-the-wind poll-watchers. Ideologues look like down-from-the-mountain truth-tellers. Party leaders are recognizing, perhaps more so than at any other point in California history, that it will be a race to turnout new--rather than so-called swing--voters.

That's the basis of the calculus at work in both the Bustamante and Schwarzenegger campaigns. In this instance, Democrats probably have the advantage. Their chair, Art Torres, is a progressive Latino who is comfortable with the expansionist vision that the national party leaders have viewed as poisonous over the past decade. At the same time, Cali Dems have been able to work what they have seen as the emerging majority to their advantage.

Republicans, on the other hand, have been plagued with factional fighting. Schwarzenegger's campaign still reflects a tension between the cavemen politics of Orange County and the far north of the state, and the socially liberal, suburban moderate bloc of the rest of the state. They may be far more divided at this point. Their candidate is the perfect made-in-Hollywood cipher. It must be mad drama in the daily briefing meetings in the Arnie camp.

We'll see how the polls look at the end of next week.

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